Digitally-enabled innovation is coming to every corner of the world, and no old business model or way of life will remain undisrupted. This means that there are a lot of jobs, especially the low value-to-cost, repetitive types, that are either going to be automated, or cut out of the production cycle entirely. New and exponential technologies, recently described as the fourth industrial revolution at the World Economic Forum in Davos last year, mean that the disruption of the workplace will happen at a much grander scale than anything we’re currently experiencing, and at skill levels previously thought too technical or complex for computers. It isn’t just factory workers who should be looking over their shoulders. It’s virtually everyone. Here’s how innovation could disrupt your job:
Agile organisations will manage workforce talent like a portfolio
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The pace of innovation is going to erase a huge number of enterprises that exist today on old business models, replacing them with organisations that can react and adapt to the demands of future consumers and business. These agile organisations are going to rely on a repertoire of highly nimble and responsive workforce talent to be able to respond to the challenges of the day.
The old model of hierarchies and chains of command built around set business functions is going to be replaced by one where a business recruits talent to meet a specific challenge, and then replaces it when a new one arises. In other words, company leaders will be managing their staff like a fund manager buys and sells securities to meet certain portfolio objectives, with the only exception being that quality and performance will essentially be self-managed. This will be very necessary in a world where entire industries can be disrupted in a matter of months, and survival depends on quick response.
Robotics will normalise the cost of labour
Virtually every job in the world could be affected by robotics, by replacement or modification. Much of robotics research is looking at how to develop machines with the ability to gather and interpret data in real-time. Never mind remote surgery, drones or self-driving vehicles; multi-purpose manufacturing automation means that there is virtually no form of low-skill labour that can’t be replaced in future.
This will have a profound effect on developing countries that are dependent on low-cost labour forces to drive growth. Why will companies be exporting manufacturing jobs halfway around the world in search of cheap labour if a locally-built robotics system can do the same work for a fraction of the total cost? The concept of Centres of Excellence (COEs) will also be under threat. In an exponential world excellence and predictability of quality will be table stakes.
Democratisation of manufacturing will destroy entire industries
Apple recently released the new iPhone 6s — the process of designing it in the United States, building it in China and then shipping it around the world to be available on the release date is a formidable feat of modern operations. It involves millions of moving parts managed by tens of thousands of people spread around the world. As you can imagine, it is expensive and time-consuming. Tim Cook, the current CEO of Apple, was previously the executive vice president of worldwide operations and sales, and he built this global operations juggernaut.
Now, imagine that entire system gone. Instead of Apple sending their blueprints to a Chinese manufacturer, they simply make them available for downloading online, and you log on and print a new phone from your desktop. Additive manufacturing and materials like Graphene are going to revolutionise the manufacturing business, which is terrible news if you’re a small cog in the current system. In future, the process of getting new products to customers might not need you.
Analytical and cognitive computing is going to change the face of knowledge-based work
Many high-skill jobs that require specialised knowledge and the ability to understand and interpret large data sets will someday be done by computer programmes or sourced crowds. We saw the beginnings of this disruption in 2011 when IBM’s Watson computer beat Ken Jennings and Brat Rutter at Jeopardy!, a quiz show they were both undisputed champions of. Jennings later poignantly remarked: “Brad and I were the first knowledge-industry workers put out of work by the new generation of ‘thinking’ machines. ‘Quiz show contestant’ may be the first job made redundant by Watson, but I’m sure it won’t be the last.” Most recently, Google’s AI beat the world’s Go champion. The ability for analytical and cognitive computing to meaningfully handle big data, combined with advances in artificial intelligence means that the work of journalists, teachers, financial analysts and lawyers will in large parts be done by computer.
The next wave of medical technology will revolutionise healthcare
We’re on the cusp of the next wave of medical technology that will have a profound impact on our lives as the germ theory of disease did in the 18th and 19th centuries. Advances in programmable DNA, digital control of genomes and genetic mapping means that future healthcare will be tailored to a single individual’s needs, with medical intervention happening at a genetic level. Nanotechnology research means that, in future, a cancer patient might be injected with nanobots that target the troublesome disease at a cellular level.
This would negate the need for invasive surgery and quicken recovery times and costs. Additive manufacturing is also granting great gains in medical innovation. A Spanish cancer patient recently received a 3D printed titanium implant to replace parts of his ribcage and sternum. These and other innovations are pointing to the same thing: it will not be business as usual in the medical world, and many jobs (especially highly specialised surgeons) may find themselves replaced by better machinery.
As we face these disruptions, the normal reaction is for organisations and individuals to dismiss it as science fiction or crazy theories; however there is enough real evidence of these technologies at early stages of development, or which are being held back due to regulations. I would encourage governments, captains of industries, schools and universities as well as the man on the street to inform and prepare themselves to take advantage of these disruptions, or stand the risk of having these technologies take advantage of them.
