Think we use loads of mobile data now? Wait until you see what the number for 2016 is

 

There are around two-billion smartphone subscribers on the planet. Those subscribers are browsing the web, streaming videos, sending instant messages, and finding their way through strange cities. Those are all things that require data and, with each individual activity, the amount of data sent and received starts to add up. And once you start putting numbers on that cumulative data, things get pretty mind-blowing.

According to technology research house Gartner, 32.5-million terrabytes of mobile data were sent and received in 2014, up from 19-million the year before. In 2015 meanwhile, the number is expected to grow to nearly 52-million terrabytes and again to nearly 80-million terrabytes by 2016.

While growth in the amount of data being trafficked is slowing, it will still be at around 53% through 2016, says Gartner.

One key driver of this growth is infrastructure, especially as increasingly large numbers of emerging market countries bringing 3G and 4G networks online, as well as more affordable 3G and 4G handsets. Countries like China, which already has half a billion smartphone users, are leading the way in this regard.

“However”, says Gartner research director Jessica Ekholm, “the key driver of data growth on a global scale is mobile apps, particularly mobile video apps. Although network speed and reliability are priorities for many mobile customers, it is really apps and content that are driving traffic volumes as people increasingly chat to friends and family, watch videos on the move, and listen to streamed music”.

That said, there is a definite benefit to lower connection costs, especially among 3G networks, which Gartner says will continue to fuel worldwide data growth during the next five years.

The availability of more affordable 4G handsets is also fuelling growth in data traffic. The increase in affordable 4G-enabled handsets and 4G services, which are becoming priced on par with 3G services, will collectively boost traffic. Gartner reckons that, by 2018, 4G users will generate 46 per cent of all mobile data traffic. This is because, by 2018, each 4G smartphone will use nearly 5.5GB of data per month, which is three times more than a 3G smartphone.

As to what kind of data will be consumed, it looks like video will lead the way.

“Mobile video is by far the biggest driver of mobile data” says Ekholm. “Data we have collected from various mobile providers suggests that mobile video is generating 50 per cent of all mobile data. We expect video streaming to account for over 60% of mobile data traffic in 2018, as consumers increase the number of videos they watch and upload. Fast, uninterrupted, video experiences encourage people to increase their video usage”.

The Gartner research director also says there’s been fairly substantial growth in the nubmer of people making and receiving video calls.

“In terms of traffic,” Ekholm says, “five minutes of 3G FaceTime video calling uses up to 15MB of data — a small amount. However, as there are many users, the collective total amount can be large. In addition, mobile music streaming can easily generate hundreds of megabytes of data, but this varies greatly between mobile music apps — for example, a user actively listening to music on Spotify may consume more than twice as much data as a user of Pandora”.

If mobile operators want to take advantage of this growing desire for content and the ability to use services which require data then, says Ekholm, they need to focus on “creating new pricing with a focus on data access, such as shared plans”.

She also says they need to “refine the services they already provide, with a focus on creating richer, more immersive and more personalised experiences, to increase their customer numbers”.

Anyone in the mobile app development game will also have to seriously up their game.

According to Ekholm, this is especially true in mature, developed markets. “As the mobile app market matures, app developers will have to sharpen their focus on the marketing and transparency of their apps, in order to retain customers”.

Gartner’s rationale for this approach is that while affluent people and traditional early adopters are the leading users of new technologies and devices, younger, less wealthy people make greater use of mobile apps. Young people’s greater acceptance of apps and mobile content will require app developers to adjust their techniques to address the differences between user groups.