Socialbakers: reports of SA Facebook ‘decline’ a ‘massive misunderstanding’

Socialbakers, a prominent social media analytics provider, has indicated that South African media’s recent reports about a significant drop in Facebook users in the country is all a “massive misunderstanding.”

A number of reports have used statistics from Socialbakers to claim that Facebook use is on the decline, suggesting the country has ‘lost’ almost a million users of the social media site in the last six months. When Memeburn contacted Socialbakers spokesperson Maie Crumpton for comment, she said the company is “hoping to prepare an official statement” from senior execs to “clear up the confusion once and for all”.

Some reports inaccurately used the Socialbakers stats to suggest that almost a million users had quit Facebook in South Africa, instead of explaining that the stats are an estimate of the number of monthly active users (MAUs) who see Facebook’s ads, not an indication of how many people have deleted or suspended their accounts and run off to Twitter or Mxit.

“Our site shows monthly active user figures, which are different from ‘user’ figures (which Facebook doesn’t release),” explained Crumpton. “Just because someone has been inactive for a period does not mean that they are no longer a user. The MAU estimates are publicly accessible through Facebook’s ad tools to advertisers and developers. They are prone to fluctuation and I’m afraid we are not in a position to speculate as to what exactly may have affected them in South Africa,” she said.

This is not the first time Socialbakers, which provides tools and metrics designed to help social media marketers plan their campaigns, has had to step in to clarify the limitations and usage of its statistics. In the UK, The Guardian used the service’s statistics to suggest Facebook may be reaching saturation point, with 600 000 fewer users logging in every month at the end of last year.

As TechCrunch pointed out at the time, services like Socialbakers, which are part of Facebook’s preferred marketing developers program, rely on Facebook’s advertising tool for their stats. The tool measures the estimated reach of Facebook ads, which the social network says isn’t “designed to be a source for tracking the overall growth of Facebook.”

Socialbakers CEO Jan Rezab also attempted to clarify the situation, saying that the data needs further interpretation to be understood in context, and that monthly active user counts can be easily influenced by casual users.

There are a number of reasons why the statistics could report a dip in usage. While more than half of all Facebook users log in every day, there are a significant number of people who can’t be bothered and log in a few times a year — or once every 31 days, missing the 30 day period measured by the ad interface. Log ins can fluctuate, as people head to Facebook to share their thoughts on elections, major events and significant holidays. Measuring all those users also becomes problematic as the tool does not always count mobile users or those logging in from work, who could move around and be categorised in different locations or classified as ambiguous.

Throw in the massive user numbers (600 000 was just 1.8% of around the UK’s 32-million users at the time) and the fact that the data, while updated regularly by Facebook, still has a delay of a few weeks, and you’ll see why it’s not so simple to figure out if the stats show a slow month or the beginning of the end. In this case, the time period was important too — visiting the UK’s Facebook usage chart now shows the decline in December was not the start of a steep downward spiral, but rather a temporary spike.

The reports have raised questions about whether Facebook is really having its much-anticipated Myspace moment. While some more advanced markets are beginning to see Facebook user figures almost equal to internet penetration numbers, Facebook use is still on the increase overall worldwide.

According to stats from Socialbakers, the usage in a number of emerging markets — including three of the BRICs — is on the increase. Which is why the supposed drop in estimated monthly active users in South Africa had a fair few social media marketing specialists and analysts scratching their heads this week, especially considering recent research in the country has only suggested Facebook use is on the up.

Again, the importance of considering the data in context and recognising potential limitations crops up. The problem with measuring mobile users becomes especially significant in South Africa, with the country’s high levels of mobile penetration when compared to traditional desktop access, and the fact that mobile sign-ups don’t require information about your location. As World Wide Worx’s Arthur Goldstuck pointed out, a recent report suggests that more than 1.7-million South Africans haven’t specified their location in their profile.

The explanation for the decline in the number of active users could also go beyond Socialbakers and Facebook’s ads tool. The social media giant has been cracking down on spam, duplicate profiles and incorrectly classified personal accounts recently, after it estimated some 83-million accounts could be fake. Perhaps those efforts are having an effect on the figures.

All things considered, it’s difficult to say conclusively that Facebook is on the decline based on one set of statistics. The company still has room to grow — as the rest of the world comes online, and mobile penetration keeps growing, Facebook is hoping they’ll sign up for an account. If we are watching the beginnings of a trend, it’s not off to a very definitive start.

We’ve reached out to Facebook for comment and will update this story when we receive a response.