3D printer sales to grow ten-fold by 2018

Over the past couple of years, we’ve heard plenty of stories about people making incredible objects using 3D printers. From guns to model asteroids, make-up and Google Glass replicas, the limits of the medium can sometimes only seem constrained by the depths of the human imagination. But with all that promise, just how well are 3D printers selling?

Well according to technology research house Gartner, sales are currently still pretty small with 217 000 units expected to ship in 2015, up from 108 151 in 2014. That said, the next few years will apparently see a boom in the space, with Gartner predicting that some 2.3-million 3D-printers will ship by 2018.

While that seems like pretty massive growth Gartner research vice president Pete Basiliere cautions that “even the 2.3 million shipments that we forecast will be sold in 2018 are a small fraction of the total potential market of consumers, businesses and government organisations worldwide.”

So what’s going to propel this boom?

Well one major factor, Gartner says, significant worldwide consumer adoption of 3D printers costing less than US$1 000. The primary market drivers for “consumer” 3D printers are lower prices, improved performance and expanded global availability.

On the “enterprise” front meanwhile, market growth looks set to be spurred by the viability of 3D printing technologies for prototyping and manufacturing coupled with lower 3D printer costs, improved quality and a wider range of materials.

As the market grows, so too will the amount people spend on 3D-printing. According to the research house, end-user spending on 3D printers is expected to increase from US$1.6-billion in 2015 to around US$13.4 billion in 2018.

It’s important to note that this spending obviously won’t be isolated to just the 3D-printing units themselves. Spending on the materials used for 3D printing, says Gartner, is impacted by the high number of startup and small companies worldwide that are taking advantage of the low barrier to entry to sell consumer 3D printers for less than US$500.

Whether these start-ups and small companies have sufficient revenue to cover not only their production and overhead costs but also service, sales, channel development, research and development, and owners’ profit remains to be seen. Conversely, providers of technologies such as directed-energy deposition and powder bed fusion will be able to hold prices as demand for their equipment rises, adding value in ways other than a costly price war in order to attract and retain enterprise buyers.

Another trend driving growth in the consumer 3D-printing market meanwhile is plug and print capability. While the ecosystem remains complex, manufacturers of entry-level material extrusion printers are incorporating relatively simple “plug-and-print” capability. Features such as locked-in materials, often available only in vendor-specific cartridges as with 2D printers, maximise the likelihood the materials will work well. Automated bed levelling and heated build chambers also facilitate simpler set-up and operation, making it easier for the consumer to “hit print” and successfully produce a 3D item. As a result, Gartner reckons that 10% of the 3D printers costing less than US$1 000 will have plug-and-print capability by 2016.

“This trend will accelerate as the market consisting primarily of early adopters who grew up with an open-source approach without lock-ins evolves into a market in which average consumers dominate,” says Basiliere. “While the early adopters will rage at the perversion of the 3D printer open-source ethos, the vast majority of mainstream consumers will demand the simple and consistent operation that ‘plug and print’ can provide them.”

Image: Creative Tools via Flickr.