WiFi in 2014: where we are and we’re heading next

WiFi remains a cornerstone technology where the opportunity to innovate has never been greater. It is a sector that is continuously progressing and evolving, with new developments in 2014 promising to make it faster, hyper-connected and more efficient than ever.

With a current global market worth US$40-billion, and set to grow to US$93-billion by 2018, it will continue to attract a lot of investment, and therefore innovation over the coming years.

But before we jump headlong into the future, we should first clarify what WiFi is exactly.

So what is WiFi?
WiFi isn’t actually a technical specification, but if a product has the WiFi logo, it has been tested by the WiFi Alliance, which is a non-profit group that makes sure 802.11 products are compatible, no matter where, or by whom, it was manufactured. 802.11 is a family of networking standards developed by the IEEE (Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers), these standards are designed to operate for the purpose of public WiFi on the 2.4 and 5Ghz spectrums, which are unlicensed frequencies.

It’s also worth taking the time to do a quick bit of myth busting. It is commonly believed that WiFi is a shortened version of Wireless Fidelity, building on the Hi-Fi definition of High Fidelity. The truth is, it doesn’t stand for anything, it is simply a brand name.

WiFi has gone through a number of standards that include a/b/g and most recently n. Each of these standards has massively increased wireless speeds available over the air. Most recently, the ac standard was introduced and it is the first to produce wireless speeds equivalent to a wired network.

With 1Gb speeds available over ac enabled WiFi equipment, and devices able to use the standard, it is an exciting time for WiFi. New standards are already in the wings, and we can expect to see 7Gb in the not too distant future.

Will wired networks soon disappear?

It is even being predicted that the current development of 802.11ac may make wired networks redundant due to Gigabit capability across wireless networks, especially those with 2 high-speed internet. WiGig, also known as 802.11ad, is one such provider coming into prominence. It is a 60 GHz technology that enables wireless docking and delivers short-range transmissions far more powerful than standard WiFi for consumers. Furthermore, the WiFi Alliance is also backing a ‘voice enterprise’ initiative to improve the quality of calls over WiFi networks along with a certification programme enabling extended power-saving features for existing WiFi installations.

It is unlikely that we will see those lovely RJ45 connections disappear overnight, but the building blocks are certainly coming into place for much less reliance on them. It is worth pointing out however that there is a real need for internet speeds to increase considerably as well. After all, WiFi speeds are great for internal traffic, but when you are surfing the wild web you are only as fast as the internet speed.

What is Hotspot2.0?

The big change to the way we interact with WiFi will only be seen as the HotSpot2.0 standard gains wider adoption. This initiative is based largely on the 802.11u standard and will genuinely transform the industry.

If we take a look at current WiFi interaction from the end users perspective, it often begins by opening your settings and WiFi, only to be faced with a very long list of SSIDs, depending where you are. All this really tells us is the name and whether it is locked or not. You certainly can’t rely on the name because anybody can broadcast an SSID and of course the SSID could be spoofing a real one.

Furthermore, if it is unlocked you have to ask yourself; “what’s on the other side?” It could be paid for, it could be looking to hijack your information or, as happens many times, nothing happens, as the internet isn’t working or it won’t connect because it’s oversubscribed. The best case scenario is you connect, and then you have to open a browser and go through a registration process.

With Hotspot2.0 the WiFi provider will broadcast much more detail; is the WiFi open? Is it paid for? Does it require registration? Is it oversubscribed? So, you can make informed decisions about the network very quickly. This will also create a seamless experience where you never interact with the network if you already have credentials in place. That means, if your mobile provider, broadband provider, hardware provider or anyone else has a pre-agreed roaming agreement with the network, they can make all those decisions in the background and just connect you.

It will also make the clunky experience of connecting to public WiFi much smoother and intuitive. Based on the same information from the network, you may see that it is free but requires registration with social credentials. When you connect you’ll be taken automatically to the relevant page to complete this, and it can also pull required credentials directly from your device to make the whole experience quick and painless.

With the addition of support for HotSpot2.0 included in iOS7 we should see a big shift in support for this on the network side during 2014.

As a final point, it is probably worth clearing up the confusion between HotSpot2.0 and Passpoint. HotSpot2.0 is the standard/initiative being driven by the WiFi Alliance and Passpoint is the certification that a device meets the standards to deliver it. On the other side of the coin is the Next Generation Hotspot initiative, driven by the Wireless Broadband Alliance (WBA) which is for operators of WiFi to make sure the whole thing comes together seamlessly.

Will we see a continued increase in free WiFi?

The simple answer to that is yes. If you look at public WiFi in the UK as an example, we have gone from pretty much 100% paid WiFi to Free WiFi becoming the norm. It doesn’t seem that long ago that we had to pay an additional fee for the WiFi in Starbucks for example.

We then moved to the point where people weren’t prepared to pay, and competitive forces in the food and drink sector pushed it all that way. These types of venues just want a tick in the box to keep their customers happy, but gain very little benefit. To them, WiFi is simply another utility like water or power.

Other sectors, such as Hotels are a lot more reluctant to let that revenue stream disappear, they’ve lost the revenue from phones and with WiFi they are losing any revenue from paid TV with people watching Netflix or iTunes instead.

It is also worth noting that the UK is a very mature market where public WiFi is concerned, and other countries such as Brazil are still pretty much all paid. I think the landscape of paid vs free will be driven by 3/4G coverage and data plans from mobile operators. If you have poor coverage/speeds or a low data cap the economics of being able to charge in a country are higher.

So to get back on track, I think there will be a massive increase in free WiFi but the dynamics of that will change. One big trend will be towards a freemium type model, similar to many online services such as Skype, Evernote, Gmail to mention a few.

This means, You’ll get a basic level of service free, and in the case of WiFi this will be time limited, data limited or a much lower speed. It is the latter that I think will grow in popularity, particularly with hotels. If you want to do email, social media or surfing, the speed will be OK. If you want to do Skype call, watch a video or anything else where you need a decent level of speed, you’ll pay a premium.

And of course the ad-supported or sponsored WiFi will play more of a part too. Ultimately, whatever the model, it comes down to the ability to monetise the WiFi asset in some way. There is no such thing as truly free WiFi because someone, somewhere has to pay for it.

Will social log-in functionality become more commonplace?

More and more website properties are offering the ability to register and login using your social media credentials, it makes perfect sense. We have existing credentials that are verified, and much, if not all, of the details required for a form are stored elsewhere. So why would consumers want to continually repeat this process whenever they access a service?

The same goes for WiFi, particularly when the need for WiFi can often be in very transient. If you only want to go online for a few minutes, those additional minutes spent filling out the form make it a bad deal. Therefore, during 2014, and beyond, I believe pretty much every WiFi provider will have social login facilities, which is great news for the end user. That is of course as long as those providers don’t abuse that trust by posting on social media accounts without the explicit permission of the end user.

WiFi as a marketing tool?

The online world has been spoilt for many years with a wealth of data and analytics about how we interact with websites. WiFi is now paving the way for this same rich data to be available in the offline world. With mobile devices constantly beaconing, (looking for a WiFi connection) we are able to use this data to capture footfall, average duration times in a venue, frequency, recency of visits and many more valuable insights.

Combine this with users who connect to the WiFi and you have a powerful marketing tool, which lets venues understand the environment, identify visitors and interact with them in new and meaningful ways. Real time and highly relevant coupons or information for events are just two small examples.

Examples of innovation in the sector

The Internet of Things (IoT), or Internet of Everything (IoE) is something that WiFi is going to play a major part in. As more and more devices and sensors have the ability to connect, they need a way of doing so. Wearable tech such as glasses and watches may use Bluetooth tethered to your mobile device, which will ultimately connect to the WiFi. What’s probably more exciting is the sensors that will be everywhere, and I do mean everywhere. An example of this are the sensors that will be inside nappies/diapers to notify you when your baby needs changing (they’re available now). This is one simple example of the thousands of use cases for sensors that will control our world and will need connectivity to do so. A more well-known example is smart meters which are being rolled out everywhere by Utility companies.

WiFi in the workplace

The development of WiFi at work will also place a stronger emphasis on the role of the Chief Digital Officer (CDO). These roles are fast becoming responsible for social and digital innovation, including WiFi initiatives, with many now being required to develop effective strategies as part of their remit, often using WiFi technology as the enabler. However, the consumerism of IT and the introduction of BYOD, encouraging employees to bring their own smartphones, laptops and PDA’s to the workplace, and connect via the company network is expected to raise various security and VoIP subscription issues.

Wireless technological developments

2014 will also bring wireless technology to the rescue of traffic congestion, regulating motorway speeds and monitoring people’s personal health. In the UK, Ofcom has already started planning for the intended use of the radio spectrum, outlining futuristic projects to maximise the resource. BT is developing one such project. The telecoms giant is partnering with Neul, the Cambridge networking start-up, and the Department of Transport to fit cars with transmitters and gather data on traffic congestion. Microsoft will also experiment with white space to provide new access to Wi-Fi in Glasgow.

The regulator also announced that local health services will soon be able to monitor patients remotely by issuing them with ‘wearable monitors’ to measure heart-rate and blood pressure including ‘intelligent pill boxes’, able to detect whether they’ve taken their tablets or not and automatically request a repeat prescription.

WiFi and the growth of mobile usage

Global mobile data traffic grew by 70 percent in 2012 and the average smartphone usage rose by 81 percent. In 2013, mobile data traffic was nearly twelve times the size of the entire global internet in 2000. This will continue to grow in 2014, fostering the development of WiFi in the process. Hotspot 2.0 will enable any end-user to land in a foreign country and look for a WiFi network, rather than a phone network, based on their roaming agreement. This is already available on iOS7 and will soon be available to Samsung Galaxy S4 owners and other manufacturers by the latter half of this year.

Additionally, as innovative product developments such as Google Glass become more mass-market, WiFi usage will accelerate further, and by 2020 both cellular and WiFi frequency will become completely saturated. This, along with the increase in mobile data usage, is expected to put huge pressure on 3/4/5G networks, creating a need for more blanket coverage whilst leading to changes in frequency.