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If the massive lines of people you see queuing outside the company’s flagship stores every time a new iPhone goes on sale were anything to go by, you’d expect the answer to the question “who’s going to upgrade to the iPhone 6?” to be somewhere close to “everyone”.
In truth though, it’s a little bit more complicated than that. The most likely iPhone users to upgrade are those with the oldest phones. Well, that’s in the US at any rate where Apple still retains a massive share of the smartphone market.
A recent study by Comscore shows that people still using the iPhone 3G and 3GS are the most likely to upgrade.
They’re followed closely by users of the iPhone 4 and iPhone 4S, which makes sense given that they’re probably just about due for an upgrade.
Interestingly, iPhone 5C users are the least likely to upgrade. When you think about it though, that makes sense. Aside from its recent release date, the fact that it was aimed at a much lower price point means that it wasn’t snapped up by the Apple devotees who most likely make up the bulk of the 24% of iPhone 5S users who are looking to upgrade.
A look at the demographics of those likely to upgrade validates this, suggesting that men aged 25 to 34 are most likely to upgrade.
It’s unclear how much these kind of insights will be reflected in other markets. Given the amount of work Apple CEO Tim Cook has put into China though, there’ll probably be quite a lot riding on the iPhone 6 doing well in that country.